A study by the Australian National University’s National Security College has shown that many Australians consider a direct foreign military attack plausible within the next five years, The Guardian reported.
The findings are based on surveys conducted between late 2024 and early this year involving more than 20,000 participants, of whom around 45 percent assess an external military attack as at least likely.
While considered less probable than other threats, this scenario is viewed as the most severe in terms of potential impact, with many describing it as either major or catastrophic.
At the same time, more than half of those surveyed believe the country is not adequately prepared to respond, indicating perceived gaps in national readiness.
Broader Security Concerns
Beyond invasion scenarios, roughly two-thirds of Australians reported being worried about security issues.
Perceived threats extend across multiple domains.
These include cyber and AI-enabled attacks, supply chain disruptions, climate-related risks, foreign interference, and economic crises.
A large majority of respondents consider these risks likely within the next decade.
Younger respondents show the sharpest increase in concern.
Among those aged 18 to 24, the share expressing anxiety about national security rose from about 22 percent in 2024 to 55 percent in 2026.
The study also found that 69 percent of respondents consider Australia’s involvement in an overseas conflict likely within five years, while concern over domestic terrorism has increased significantly, now viewed as a serious threat by more than 70 percent of those surveyed.
